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Post-Tropical Cyclone IAN Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT45 KNHC 161454
TCDAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning.  Any of
the remaining weak-to-moderate convection is the northern side of
the circulation, with cold air wrapping into the center of the
cyclone as it is overtaken by a cold front.  The initial intensity
of 55 kt is based on ASCAT data.  Ian should move quickly
northeastward and gradually weaken before a larger extratropical low
absorbs it in about 2 days.  The track, intensity, and wind radii
forecasts are based largely on guidance from the Ocean Prediction
Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 48.8N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  17/0000Z 54.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1200Z 59.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0000Z 64.5N  14.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake