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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT45 KNHC 230236
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and the Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle
launched from the NOAA plane have sampled the eye and the
surroundings of Maria early this evening. An Air Force plane also
arrived and so far has penetrated the eye a couple of times. Based
on the data from these platforms, the maximum winds are still 110 kt
in the eyewall that surrounds a large eye of about 35 n mi in
diameter. There are no reports of a double wind max at this time so
no eyewall replacement cycle is anticipated soon. The current shear
is forecast to decrease, but the hurricane is moving toward a region
with less oceanic heat content. The combination of these two factors
should result in a very gradual decay of the hurricane, and the NHC
forecast keeps Maria as a category 3 at least for one or two more
days.

Satellite and plane fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the
north-northwest or 345 degrees at 8 kt, steered by a subtropical
ridge to the east of the hurricane. The ridge is forecast to amplify
westward during the next few days, but it is not expected to be
strong enough to block the northward motion of the hurricane. It
will however, force the hurricane to move slowly. Tonight's guidance
continues to be in very good agreement for the next 3 days, and the
NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope. After that
time, the GFS and EMWF are once again in competition, with the GFS
defining the western edge of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF the
eastern one. This makes the forecast a little  more uncertain.
The NHC forecast recurves Maria over the open Atlantic which is the
solution of the HFIP corrected consensus and the multi-model
consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of
the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf
and life-threatening rip currents for the next several days.

3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and
Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine
what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.

4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in
the United States, please monitor information from your local
National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 24.1N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 25.3N  72.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 27.0N  72.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 28.5N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 29.7N  72.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 31.7N  72.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 33.5N  72.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 35.5N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Sep-2017 02:37:43 UTC