| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT45 KNHC 022045
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging.  Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
and nearer to the middle of the deep convection.  Flight-level and
SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
no significant change in strength is likely before landfall.  Once
inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
indicated by the NHC forecast.

With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt.  Despite the
complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
remains roughly the same.  A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
westward direction over the next day or two.  The official track
forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 22.0N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 02-Sep-2014 20:45:14 UTC