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Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 291450
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone with all of the cold cloud tops located well north and
northwest of the exposed center.  A frontal boundary has also
wrapped around the southern portion of the circulation.  A recent
ASCAT pass revealed a large area of 50-60 kt winds to the southeast
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at
65 kt.  Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful
cyclone over the north Atlantic until it merges with another large
low near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.

The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 40 kt during the
past 6 to 12 hours.  However, the low is expected to slow down some
while it continues on a northeastward heading in deep layer
southwesterly flow during the next day or so.  The official track
forecast lies between the ECMWF and GFS solution and has been
coordinated with guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 45.5N  47.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 14:51:08 UTC