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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 290253
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Remarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on
satellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding
features.  The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in
agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The
hurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause
significant weakening as a tropical cyclone.  However, it is
expected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of
its strength due to baroclinic forcing.  Post-tropical Cristobal
will likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over
the north Atlantic through Saturday.  Beyond that time, the system
is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and
lose its identity.

The hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now
near 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies.  Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward
the northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts
with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two.  The
official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF model solutions.

The wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT
overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 40.2N  56.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 43.1N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 47.5N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1200Z 51.5N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0000Z 56.5N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 02:54:10 UTC