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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 290856

500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The satellite presentation of the depression is quite ragged this
morning, with little deep convection over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico or Straits of Florida.  The thunderstorm activity that was
located to the east and southeast of the center yesterday afternoon
and evening, has propagated southwestward and is now located over
Cuba and the extreme northern Caribbean Sea, well south of the
center due to moderate to strong northerly shear.  Data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been very helpful in locating the
low-level center overnight, and wind reports from the aircraft
indicate that the depression still has winds of 25 to 30 kt.

The intensity forecast for the depression remains of lower
confidence than normal.  The strong northerly upper-level winds
currently over the system are forecast to decrease today, and the
depression should be in a more conducive upper-level environment
for a day or two.  However, the global models indicate that dry
mid-level air will remain near and to the northwest of the system,
and that, combined with the current poor organization of the
depression, suggests that any intensification should be slow to
occur during the next day or so.  After 48 hours, the upper-level
winds should turn southwestward and become more diffluent over the
system due to a mid- to upper-level trough that will be digging
southward over the eastern United States.  This could result in a
little more favorable environment, and the NHC forecast calls for
gradual intensification between 72 and 120 hours.  The NHC forecast
remains on the conservative side, and is between the more aggressive
statistical guidance and the global models, which do not
significantly deepen the system until it moves into the western

The aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is moving generally
westward at about 8 kt.  The tropical cyclone should move westward
to west-northwestward today to the south of a low- to mid-level
ridge.  The depression should turn northwestward and then northward
around the western portion of the ridge on Tuesday.  After that
time, the aforementioned digging trough should begin to steer
the cyclone northeastward at a faster forward speed.  Most of the
track guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there
are some differences on how fast the system will move northeastward
toward the Florida peninsula.  The update NHC track is close to a
consensus of the global models, and is not very different than the
previous NHC advisory.


INIT  29/0900Z 23.5N  83.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 23.7N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 24.1N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 24.7N  87.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 25.4N  87.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 27.8N  85.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 30.5N  81.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 33.0N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

Forecaster Brown