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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 270833
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

The cloud pattern has changed from 12 hours ago when there was deep
and symmetric convection near the center. Currently, the satellite
presentation resembles a subtropical cyclone with weak convection
which is not concentrated near the center. However, an Air Force
plane recently penetrated Cristobal and found a minimum pressure of
983 mb and a partial eyewall. The strong winds of 75 to 80 kt
measured by the plane at flight level were not observed at the
surface during this time. Given such uncertainty, the initial
intensity has been kept at 70 kt at this time. The hurricane has a
small window of opportunity for strengthening before it moves to
higher latitudes and over cooler waters in a couple of days. The NHC
wind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model
consensus and similar to the previous official one. After that time,
Cristobal is forecast to become a strong post-tropical storm with
hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week.

Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Cristobal slowed down
earlier this morning, but as anticipated, it has resumed a northward
motion or 010 degrees at 10 knots. The steering pattern has not
changed and Cristobal should begin to move toward the northeast in
about 24 hours with an increase in forward speed as it becomes
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is very
close to the multi-model consensus and similar to the GFS ensemble
mean AEMI, which has been performing quite well with this storm so
far. The forecast beyond 72 hours follows the input from the Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 30.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 32.4N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 34.7N  69.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 37.5N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 40.5N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 48.0N  43.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0600Z 53.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila




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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 08:33:55 UTC