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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 272032
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Deep convection continues to be confined mostly near and to the west
of the center of Cristobal, with dry air persisting in the eastern
semicircle. After rising a bit earlier this afternoon, the central
pressure has fallen back down to 984 mb. The initial intensity of 65
kt is based on several 60-65 kt SFMR winds from the hurricane hunter
aircraft. The intensity forecast shows gradual intensification to 75
kt in 36 to 48 hours, as Cristobal will have the opportunity to
intensify as a tropical cyclone and then via baroclinic processes
during extratropical transition. Global model fields show Cristobal
deepening during transition and acquiring a warm seclusion structure
in 48 to 72 hours. Slow decay is expected after 72 hours before the
cyclone is absorbed at high latitudes.

Cristobal has begun moving north-northeastward, with an initial
motion estimate of 030/13. The cyclone should continue to accelerate
around the subtropical ridge into the mid-latitude westerlies
tonight and remain on a general northeastward heading through 72
hours before bending northward. The track model guidance remains in
good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track is close to the
previous forecast and the middle of the guidance envelope.

The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 32.7N  71.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 34.4N  69.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 37.3N  63.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 41.0N  55.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 45.3N  47.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/1800Z 53.5N  34.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1800Z 60.0N  27.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 20:32:59 UTC