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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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WTNT44 KNHC 280832
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Cristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical
cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric
area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of
65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as
indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it
will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts
with a frontal zone.  Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius
waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It
should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of
hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.

The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and
accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from
the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in
good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS
ensemble mean.

The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated
with the Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 35.6N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 37.8N  63.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 41.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 46.0N  47.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/0600Z 50.0N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0600Z 59.5N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0600Z 63.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 08:32:57 UTC