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Tropical Depression LISA Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 242037
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

Lisa has been devoid of thunderstorm activity since the convective
burst dissipated shortly after 1200 UTC.  Assuming some additional
spin down since the ASCAT pass this morning, the initial wind speed
is lowered to 30 kt, making Lisa a tropical depression again.
Meteosat dust product images from the GOES-R Proving Ground indicate
that a plume of Saharan dust is approaching Lisa from the east. This
dry air combined with westerly shear should cause the depression to
degenerate to a remnant low by tonight and continue weakening during
the next day or two.  The global models are in fair agreement in
showing the low opening into a trough in 36 to 48 hours before it
gets absorbed by a cold front.

Lisa is moving northwestward at 10 kt.  A gradual turn to the north
is expected during the next day or two while the high pressure
system to the north of Lisa shifts eastward.  The NHC track forecast
is slightly to the left of the previous one, and is in best
agreement with the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 25.3N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 26.4N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/1800Z 28.4N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0600Z 30.5N  42.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi