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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 010244
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Deep convection is becoming increasingly dislocated from the center
of the tropical depression because of the strong westerly vertical
shear.  Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB continue to drop
as the convection becomes less organized.  The initial intensity
remains 25 kt.

The tropical depression should not be long for this world.  Last-
light visible imagery suggests that the center may be becoming
diffuse. The deep convection may soon either dissipate or be located
far from the center.  The system may shortly become entangled in a
frontal boundary.  If the center is no longer well defined, if there
is no associated organized deep convection, or if the cyclone
becomes frontal, then the system will no longer be a tropical
cyclone.  One or more of these options should occur within about a
day, if not sooner.  In about two days, the post-tropical cyclone is
likely to be absorbed in a separate extratropical low.

The depression is moving toward the east-northeast at about 14 kt,
as it is being swept up by the southwesterlies ahead of a
mid-latitude shortwave trough.  The system should accelerate in the
same direction until dissipation.  The track is based upon the
consensus of the reliable global models and is nearly the same as
that from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 36.7N  70.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 38.2N  66.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 40.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  02/1200Z 43.0N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea



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Page last modified: Thursday, 01-Sep-2016 02:44:24 UTC