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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 290855
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

There has been little change in the structure of the depression
since the last advisory, as it is comprised of a swirl of low-level
clouds accompanied by minimal shower activity.  Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that again is the
initial intensity for this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
cyclone.

The initial motion now is 300/9.  For the next 36-48 hours, the
depression is expected to move generally northwestward toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast.
After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through
the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and
cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and no
significant changes have been made to the forecast track through 48
hours.  After that time, the guidance shows a more eastward motion,
and the forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous
forecast.

The dynamical models still forecast the shear to decrease during
the next 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist
environment.  Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing
modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North
Carolina.  The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but
it is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty
about whether the environment will become as favorable as the models
are suggesting, and about whether the cyclone will be able to
maintain organized convection.  After recurvature, the cyclone is
forecast to merge with a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 32.6N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 33.2N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 33.8N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 34.4N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 35.4N  74.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 38.0N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Aug-2016 08:55:41 UTC