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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 310240
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Aircraft fixes from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the center of the depression is located near the
southwestern edge of a persistent cluster of deep convection.  The
plane did not find any stronger winds than in previous missions,
and the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  Westerly vertical shear
affecting the cyclone is not expected to decrease, and in fact it
should increase substantially from 24 hours and beyond.  Still, if
the system can maintain deep convection while it remains over warm
sea surface temperatures for the next 36 hours or so, the mere fact
that it is expected to accelerate from this point forward could
allow the maximum winds to increase.  The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the previous one, but it does allow for possible
strengthening to tropical storm strength in about 12 hours.  The
cyclone should become extratropical by 72 hours, but after that
there is some uncertainty whether it will be absorbed by another
cyclone or become the dominant system.  For now, the forecast
continues to show it becoming absorbed, which is in line with the
ECMWF.

The aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is beginning to
move away from the Outer Banks with an initial motion of 040/4 kt.
The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and then
east-northeast through the forecast period.  The track models are
in very good agreement, and no significant changes were required to
the official track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 34.5N  74.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 35.4N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 37.1N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 39.3N  66.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 41.5N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 45.1N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Aug-2016 02:41:00 UTC