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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion


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Local Statements  


000
WTNT43 KNHC 310854
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

The low-level center is difficult to find, but given the strong
westerly shear and continuity, it is assumed that it is located to
the west of a large area of deep convection devoid of banding
features. Dvorak numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity
remains at 30 kt. Most of the guidance shows a significant increase
in the shear, but at the same time forecasts a slight increase in
intensity. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and the previous
forecast showing a slight increase in the winds before the cyclone
becomes extratropical in 48 hours.

The depression is moving slowly toward the northeast at 4 kt, and
is already embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of an
amplifying mid-latitude trough. This pattern favors a continuation
of the northeast track away from the U.S coast with a significant
increase in forward speed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 34.8N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 35.7N  72.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 37.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 40.0N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 42.5N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila