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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 292051
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Satellite and radar images suggest that the depression is becoming
better organized.  Convection has formed in the northwestern
quadrant, with some banding features in the northern semicircle of
the cyclone.  Aircraft data, however, show that the pressure has
stayed the same as 6 hours ago and the winds have not increased.
Thus the initial wind speed remains 30 kt.  This burst of convection
should eventually lead to some intensification as environmental
factors (less shear and more moisture) are forecast to become a
little more favorable. Most of the guidance are in good agreement on
this scenario on gradual intensification, and the latest forecast is
close to the previous one and the model consensus.

The depression is still moving northwestward at about 6 kt.
There has been no change to the synoptic reasoning from the last
advisory cycle. The cyclone should slow down and turn northward
tomorrow as it reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the
North Carolina coast.  In about 36 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave
trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to
erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into
the westerlies.  The latest NHC prediction is very close to the
previous one, between the model consensus and the GFS model.  The
cyclone should dissipate or be absorbed within a large extratropical
cyclone in about 4 days.

Due to the close pass of the cyclone to the Outer Banks, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from
Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 33.6N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 34.0N  74.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 34.6N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 35.4N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 36.7N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 40.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Aug-2016 20:52:09 UTC