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Post-Tropical Cyclone BONNIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 301437
TCDAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Bonnie has been gradually weakening during the past 24 hours.  Deep
convection associated the depression dissipated around 0300 UTC, and
the central pressure has risen several millibars since this time
yesterday.  Surface observations over land also indicate winds no
higher than 15 kt near Bonnie's center of circulation, however,
winds to around 25 kt are noted over water in a band well removed to
the east. Given the absence of deep convection for about 12 hours,
Bonnie no longer meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical
cyclone and is being designated as a post-tropical/remnant low at
this time. Sporadic convection could re-develop in association with
Bonnie during the next few days, especially over land during peak
diurnal heating.  However, re-development into a tropical cyclone is
not anticipated.  Global models show the remnant low of Bonnie
transitioning into an extratropical cyclone along a frontal zone
just after 72 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be 065/02, although visible
satellite imagery indicates little motion during the last few
hours.  The track model guidance shows the post-tropical cyclone
generally meandering slowly east-northeastward during the next day
or so in a region of weak southwesterly steering flow.  A shortwave
trough entering the Midwest in 2 to 3 days should cause the post-
tropical cyclone to move northeast and then east-northeastward into
the western Atlantic with an increase in forward speed.  The new NHC
track forecast is shifted a bit to the left of the previous one and
keeps Bonnie over land during the next 3 days.

There continues to be the potential for Bonnie to generate heavy
rainfall and some flooding over portions of the Carolinas during the
next 2 to 3 days. Future information on Bonnie can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 33.4N  79.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  31/0000Z 33.7N  79.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  31/1200Z 33.9N  78.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z 34.2N  78.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z 34.8N  77.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1200Z 36.2N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1200Z 37.7N  73.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1200Z 38.8N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


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