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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 291447
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016

Over the past few hours, the satellite presentation of Gaston has
become slightly less organized, with decreasing convection noted in
the eyewall.  Satellite estimates are a bit lower, so the initial
wind speed is reduced to 95 kt.  Little change in intensity is
expected for the next couple of days while Gaston remains over warm
waters with light-to-moderate shear.  Thereafter, a gradual
increase in shear, along with a decrease in SSTs, should cause a
more significant weakening.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is
simply an update of the previous one since the guidance continues
to be in fairly good agreement.

Gaston is still drifting northward. The steering currents should
become better defined tomorrow as a ridge becomes established to
the south of the cyclone.  The ridge should cause Gaston to
accelerate to the east-northeast over the next few days, although
the cyclone stays south of the main belt of mid-latitude
westerlies.  Guidance is coming into better agreement on the system
approaching the Azores in about 5 days, although there are some
speed differences.  No significant changes were made to the
previous forecast, which lies near or just south of the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 31.0N  55.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 31.3N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 31.9N  53.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 32.6N  51.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 33.7N  49.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 36.7N  42.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 38.0N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 39.0N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Aug-2016 14:48:52 UTC