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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Jose's overall structure and wind
field have changed little since the previous advisory. Although the
highest 700-mb flight-level wind and SFMR surface winds reported by
the aircraft were 66 kt and 57 kt, respectively, these winds were
observed in areas of little or no convection. Given the large size
of Jose's wind field, it unlikely that the aircraft sampled the
strongest winds, and the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 976 mb, indicating that
Jose remains a strong cyclone.

The low-level center has been wobbling around inside the larger
inner-core circulation, resulting in a forward motion a little west
of due north or 350/06 kt. Overall there is no significant change to
the previous track forecast. The global and regional models remain
in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning toward the
northeast and east over the next couple days as it moves around a
ridge over the western Atlantic. On days 3-5, the models agree on a
high-latitude ridge building to the north of the cyclone, forcing
Jose to move slowly or drift southward over the North Atlantic. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and
lies close to a blend of the various consensus models.

Since the previous advisory, shallow convection has been increasing
in both depth and areal coverage in the southeastern semicircle,
while deeper convection has remained over the northwestern
semicircle. The recent formation of convection to the southeast is
beginning to give Jose the appearance of developing a large
truck-tire eye with a diameter of approximately 100 nmi. Such eye
patterns typically indicate a fairly stable cyclone that doesn't
weaken or weakens only slowly. Although the center of Jose will be
moving over 21C SSTs by 36-48 h, a significant portion of the large
circulation will still be situated over water south of the Gulf
Stream that is positioned along 40N latitude, which will maintain a
southerly feed of warm, moist, unstable air into and north of the
center. Given the combination of the aforementioned favorable
thermodynamic conditions and only modest vertical wind shear of
15-20 kt, the intensity forecast remains basically unchanged from
the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA
consensus models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the
Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts along the U.S. east coast from Long Island to
southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This
rainfall could cause isolated flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 36.5N  71.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 37.8N  70.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 39.1N  69.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 39.9N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 39.9N  67.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 39.2N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  23/1200Z 38.7N  67.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  24/1200Z 38.4N  67.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Sep-2017 15:00:39 UTC