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Post-Tropical Cyclone KATE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 120847
TCDAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
500 AM AST THU NOV 12 2015

Satellite imagery indicates that Kate has merged with a baroclinic
zone over the north Atlantic and is now an extratropical cyclone.
The advisory intensity is set at 60 kt based on earlier ASCAT-A data
and continuity from the previous advisory.  The post-tropical
cyclone should gradually weaken during the next 2-3 days as it
merges with a low pressure area currently located to its west.
After that time, the global models show an intensifying baroclinic
low over the northeastern Atlantic, but it is unclear whether this
low is the re-intensification of the former Kate or a new low that
absorbs the remnants of Kate.  The official forecast follows the
previous forecast in using the latter scenario.

The initial motion is 060/23.  The post-tropical cyclone should
slow its forward motion during the next 24 hours or so during the
merger with the low to the west, and some erratic motion is
possible. Subsequently, the post-tropical cyclone should accelerate
toward the east-northeast and northeast.  The new forecast track is
again slower than the previous forecast and is in best agreement
with the consensus models.

This is the last advisory on this system issued by the National
Hurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 40.7N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  12/1800Z 41.8N  48.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  13/0600Z 42.2N  45.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/1800Z 43.3N  41.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/0600Z 46.3N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  15/0600Z 55.0N  19.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  16/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven



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Page last modified: Thursday, 12-Nov-2015 17:48:16 UTC