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Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 051445
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Satellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the
disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands has become better
organized, and is now Tropical Depression Seven. The convection is
not very deep at this time, but animation of visible images show a
good circulation. In fact, earlier microwave data clearly depict a
mid-level center associated with the developing depression. Based on
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, the
initial intensity has been set at 30 kt. No ASCAT data were
available at the time of this advisory.

The environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global
models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt
any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will
weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280
degrees at 12 kt. A moderately strong subtropical ridge is centered
north of the depression. This pattern calls for a continuation of
a general westward track for the next 3 days.  After that time,
the ridge is expected to weaken, and the cyclone will likely turn
more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed.
This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not
acknowledge the existence of a cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 12.3N  25.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 12.5N  26.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 12.8N  29.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 13.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 13.5N  34.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 14.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 15.0N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 15.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Sep-2015 14:45:36 UTC