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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 220839
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

Since the last advisory, a small burst of deep convection has been
observed near the center of Jose.  The cyclone is still embedded
within a dry environment and located over cold SSTs, so it will be a
little surprising if the convection is maintained for an extended
period of time this morning.  The intensity of the post-tropical
cyclone remains 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data, and these winds
are likely occuring over open water well to the northwest of Jose's
center.  Surface observations on Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and
Block Island indicate that tropical storm conditions are still
occuring in some locations along the coast.  The prior ASCAT pass
also showed a wide area of tropical-storm-force winds just offshore
of Cape Cod, and there is still some opportunity for these winds to
reach the coast this morning.  Therefore, the tropical storm
warnings remain in effect, and the NHC will continue to issue
advisories on Jose.

No significant change has been made to the track or intensity
forecast.  All of the dynamical models remain in good agreement that
Jose will remain trapped in weak steering flow while gradually
spinning down for the next several days.  Although the cyclone has
been drifting west for the past 12 hours, a slow turn back toward
the east should begin sometime later today and continue through at
least day 3.  The NHC forecast track is close to the TVCX and HCCA
consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue this morning.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 39.7N  68.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/1800Z 39.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/0600Z 39.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1800Z 39.2N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  24/0600Z 38.9N  67.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 38.5N  67.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Sep-2017 08:40:17 UTC