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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion (Text)


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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Satellite and radar data suggest that Jose is gradually spinning
down.  The convective bands are relatively shallow, except over the
western quadrants where the cloud tops are a bit colder.  The
outer-most bands are very near the offshore islands of southeastern
New England, where there have been reports of tropical-storm-force
winds, especially in gusts.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
investigated Jose earlier this morning, and a combination of the
flight-level winds, SFMR observations, and dropsonde data support
holding the initial intensity at 50 kt.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward.  Cool waters, dry
air, and an expected increase in wind shear should cause Jose to
steadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the
next 24 hours.  The post-tropical system is predicted to degenerate
into a trough by day 4, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models.
The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one,
and it lies close to the consensus models.

As previously predicted, Jose has become stationary.  Since the
storm is expected to remain in weak steering currents for the next
few days, Jose is forecast to meander off the coast of southeastern
New England until it dissipates.  This track prediction is not too
different from the previous one, and it lies near the middle of the
guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next few days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 39.6N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 39.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 39.6N  68.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/0000Z 39.5N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/1200Z 39.4N  69.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/1200Z 39.1N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Sep-2017 14:38:01 UTC