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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion (Text)


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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

An Air Force plane once again investigated Jose tonight, and
although the central pressure remained low, near 973 mb, the surface
winds were gradually decreasing and do not support hurricane
strength. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak T-numbers
which indicated weakening. On this basis, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 60 kt. Although the shear is not too high, Jose
is moving over cool waters.  This should result in additional
weakening and Jose is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in
about 48 hours.

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Jose
is moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 8 kt. Currently,
Jose in embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, but
most of the global models forecast the development of a ridge to the
north in two days.  This new pattern should block the motion
of the storm and Jose should begin to meander.  The NHC forecast is
very similar to the previous one and follows the ECMWF model and the
HFIP corrected consensus model HCCA. It also uses the input from
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
are expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.
2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5
inches in Martha's Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 37.9N  70.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 38.8N  69.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 39.6N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 39.7N  67.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 39.5N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/0000Z 38.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/0000Z 38.5N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Sep-2017 02:48:57 UTC