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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 030235
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

The cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the
previous advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C
seen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center.
Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

There is little change in either the forecast guidance or the
forecast track since the last advisory.  Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between
the ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic.
The new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance
envelope.

Fred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and
the dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72
hours.  This, in combination with dry air entraining into the
cyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36
hours, if not earlier.  After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are
expected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures,
decreasing shear, and increasing moisture.  In theory, this could
allow the system to regenerate.  However, while the dynamical
models show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of
them show any significant intensification in the more favorable
environment.  Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a
weak remnant low through 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 20.6N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 21.2N  33.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.8N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 23.5N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 26.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z 28.5N  41.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 02:36:05 UTC