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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 180849
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small,
solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep
convection.  The infrared satellite presentation has not changed
appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at
75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT.  Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some
atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its
convective structure.  However, the SHIPS guidance shows the
instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over
30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a
faster weakening trend later today.  The hostile conditions should
cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours,
and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a
post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5.  The NHC
forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus.

The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has
an initial motion of 065/24 kt.  Edouard is moving around the
northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central
Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward
around this feature during the next 3 days.  Most of the track
models are in good agreement on this scenario.  The two main
outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after
12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race
northeastward ahead of a cold front.  The updated NHC track forecast
is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a
little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 39.6N  45.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 40.1N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 39.9N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/0600Z 35.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 08:49:57 UTC