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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 190852
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

Satellite images indicate that Edouard has become much less
organized during the past several hours.  The low-level center is
now exposed with no associated deep convection, with the old mid-
level circulation decoupled well to the southeast.  With the
absence of deep convection, Edouard is probably losing strength
quickly, so the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, a little
higher than the average of the satellite estimates in consideration
of the earlier Global Hawk/ASCAT data.  Edouard is unlikely to
redevelop organized deep convection since it is over 23C water with
strong shear.  Thus, the storm should continue to weaken and will
likely become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  Extratropical
transition is indicated in a couple of days since most of the global
models are now showing the former tropical cyclone developing
frontal features by that time.

Edouard has slowed down considerably during the past few hours, with
initial motion estimate of 090/6 kt.   A continued eastward
motion is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to
the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between
the subtropical high and a deep-layer low over the northeast
Atlantic Ocean.  The latest NHC forecast is blend of the previous
NHC prediction and the latest dynamical model consensus, which
results in a small westward shift in the 48-72 hour time frame.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 39.8N  38.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 08:53:26 UTC