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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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WTNT41 KNHC 142032
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard has become better organized this afternoon.  The eye of the
hurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, and
deep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensity
and coverage during the past few hours.  NOAA hurricane hunters
investigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight-
level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt.  These data and
the consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC,
support raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt.  Additional
strengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while the
hurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat.
The only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry air
that is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation.
Steady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when the
cyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass,
which will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur in
about 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity in
about two days followed by a steady decline after that.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered by
a subtropical ridge centered to its north.  This ridge is expected
to weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard to
gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days.  By
mid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
zonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east.  The
NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next few
days, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 h.

The NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes into
and around the circulation of Edouard.  These data will be useful in
analyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and should
help the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 25.4N  52.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 26.4N  53.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 27.8N  55.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 29.3N  56.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 31.2N  56.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 35.9N  53.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 40.1N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 41.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Sep-2014 20:32:41 UTC