Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTNT41 KNHC 021437

1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and
consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is
maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent
ASCAT overpass.  If organized deep convection does not return very
soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical
cyclone this afternoon.  Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface
temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to
gradually spin down during the next few days.  Very late in the
forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs
and in an area of lower shear.  Redevelopment appears unlikely,
however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central

Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The forecast calls
for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over
the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic.  After that time, the remnant low is predicted to
turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it
moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure
area centered south of the Azores.  The new NHC track forecast is
in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the
southern edge of the model envelope.


INIT  02/1500Z 19.8N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 20.2N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/1200Z 20.9N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 21.5N  35.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 21.9N  36.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 22.7N  39.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 24.2N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 26.5N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Brown

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 14:37:24 UTC