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Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 032031
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013

JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS.  REGENERATION IS
UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12.  POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 31.8N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  04/0600Z 32.6N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1800Z 33.7N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 34.8N  32.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 36.0N  30.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Oct-2013 20:32:27 UTC