Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Forecast Discussion (Text)

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WTNT41 KNHC 020232

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

The center of Emily has become exposed again tonight, with satellite
images showing the skeletal circulation well to the west of any
distant convection.  The shallow cyclone hasn't really produced any
organized deep convection in about 24 hours, with only small puffs
that quickly fade out due to dry air and shear.  In addition, the
cyclone is embedded within a frontal zone, and no analysis shows
Emily with a warm core.  Given these considerations, Emily has lost
the requisite characteristics of a tropical cyclone, and is being
declared post-tropical.  Thus, this is the last advisory on Emily.

The cyclone has taken a turn to the north-northeast but should
resume a northeast motion overnight ahead of a deep-layer trough.
The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the left based on the
initial position only, with the models in good agreement on the
general northeast course.  Emily should gradually weaken due to
increasing shear and dry air aloft, and acquire more extratropical
characteristics on Wednesday.  Dissipation of the low is forecast
within 3 days as it opens up into a trough.


INIT  02/0300Z 30.9N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  02/1200Z 32.3N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  03/0000Z 33.9N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  03/1200Z 35.0N  70.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/0000Z 36.0N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Aug-2017 02:32:59 UTC