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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 182036
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

Over the past 6 hours, visible and microwave satellite imagery
indicate that the upper-level and low-level circulations have
started to decouple due to strong westerly vertical wind shear, with
the upper-level center having become displaced more than 60 nmi east
of the low-level center. The initial motion of 090/14 kt is based
mainly on microwave fixes. Edouard is forecast to move around the
northern and eastern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located
along 30N-32N latitude. The models are in excellent agreement on
the cyclone moving eastward for the next 48 hours, followed by a
turn to the southeast on Day 3 and to the south on Day 4. The new
NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track,
and basically lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Edouard is forecast to remain over sub-24C SSTs and encounter
increasing westerly shear of near 35 kt in 12-24 hours. The
combination of these adverse conditions is expected to result in the
rapid demise of Edouard, with the system becoming a post-tropical
cyclone in 24 hours, if not sooner. The global models continue to
show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by Day 5 as it interacts
with and perhaps becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.
The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory
and closely follows a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 39.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 39.9N  39.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 39.8N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  20/0600Z 39.8N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  20/1800Z 39.8N  33.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/1800Z 37.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z 32.5N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 20:37:03 UTC