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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 190236
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

Edouard has not changed much during the past several hours.
Microwave images indicate that the low-level center is located on
the western side of the main area of deep convection due to about
30 kt of westerly shear. Despite being in a strong shear environment
and over cool waters, an ASCAT pass just before 0000 UTC indicated
that Edouard has not weakened significantly.  Maximum reliable winds
seen in the ASCAT data are in the 55 to 60 kt range, and dropsonde
wind reports from the NASA Global Hawk suggest a similar intensity.
Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this
advisory.  The storm is expected to remain in hostile conditions,
therefore, steady weakening is anticipated and Edouard is forecast
to become post-tropical in about 24 hours.  The global models show
the post-tropical cyclone degenerating into a trough by 96 hours,
and this is reflected in the official forecast.

Satellite fixes suggest that Edouard is moving eastward at about 15
kt on the north side of a subtropical high.  A continued eastward
motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted for the next
day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone
becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep
layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean.  The NHC track
forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one, and
lies very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on the ASCAT pass
and the NASA Global Hawk dropsonde data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 39.9N  39.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 39.9N  36.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  21/0000Z 39.5N  31.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  22/0000Z 36.0N  29.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 02:36:40 UTC