Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion (Text)

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WTNT41 KNHC 041452

1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

The overall cloud pattern of Joaquin has changed little since the
previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt and SFMR
surface wind values of 90 kt during its mission so far this morning,
so the initial intensity has been decreased to 95 kt for this
advisory. A ragged eye feature is just becoming apparent on
the Bermuda radar, with strong inner-core rain bands currently
located less than 50 nmi southwest of the island.

Recon center fixes indicate that Joaquin has made the expected turn
toward the north-northeast, and is now moving 030/15 kt. Joaquin is
forecast to move around the western portion of a modest mid-level
ridge to its east and ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer low
located over the southeastern United States. This is expected to
result in the hurricane moving toward the north-northeast today and
tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the
short term forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to pass
about 60 nmi west and northwest of Bermuda during the next 12-24
hours. By days 2-5, Joaquin is forecast to accelerate to the
east-northeast as the cyclone gets caught up in the fast
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially
just an update of the previous advisory track, albeit slightly
slower, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model

Excluding a slight respite this afternoon, the vertical wind shear
is forecast to increase during the next two days, with the mid-level
environment expected to dry out with humidity values decreasing to
around 50 percent. These less favorable conditions should result in
gradual weakening for the next 48 hours or so, followed by more
significant weakening on days 3-5 when Joaquin is expected to become
an extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic where SSTs are
20C-24C and vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. Extratropical
transition is forecast to occur by 96 hours, but it is possible that
it could sooner by around 72 hours as per guidance from the SHIPS
and LGEM statistical-dynamical models, and the EMCWF model. The
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
consensus model IVCN through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center at 96 h and 120 h when the cyclone is
expected to be an extratropical low.


INIT  04/1500Z 31.0N  66.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 32.8N  65.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 34.8N  64.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 36.6N  62.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 38.4N  58.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 42.3N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 46.4N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 51.4N  19.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Sunday, 04-Oct-2015 14:52:58 UTC