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Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 231433
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more
organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation
and no organized deep convection.  Thus, Fiona no longer meets the
requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory.
The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the
latest Dvorak estimates.  While wind shear is forecast to decrease,
the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not
likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions.  In
addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit
any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this
time.  The low should move northwestward into a break in the
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 26.1N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  24/0000Z 26.6N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1200Z 27.5N  67.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 28.4N  69.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 29.0N  69.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 29.5N  71.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Aug-2016 14:34:03 UTC