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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 061443

1100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015

Joaquin is in a state of gradual decay.  Although an eye feature is
still occasionally visible, there has been some erosion of the
inner-core deep convection.  A series of microwaves images this
morning indicate some eastward tilt of the vortex with height, and
there is evidence of dry air entrainment into the inner core. Dvorak
intensity estimates are slowly decreasing, and the initial wind
speed is reduced to 70 kt. An increase in southwesterly shear and
cooler waters along Joaquin's track should cause further weakening
during the next few days. Cooler and drier air behind a low-level
baroclinic zone currently draped to the north of the cyclone should
gradually be advected into Joaquin's circulation during the next 24
to 48 hours, and extratropical transition is expected to be complete
in about 36 hours.  The new intensity forecast is near the
multi-model consensus through 36 hours and then a bit above that
after that time.

Recent fixes indicate that Joaquin has is accelerating
northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/16.  The
cyclone is expected to further accelerate toward the east-northeast
as it becomes fully embedded in a belt of nearly zonal middle- to
upper-tropospheric flow during the next few days.  After
extratropical transition, Joaquin should experience a significant
deceleration when it approaches the British Isles.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, with somewhat
greater spread after that time.  The new track forecast is about the
same as the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus for
the remainder of the forecast period.


INIT  06/1500Z 38.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 39.5N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 40.8N  48.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 42.0N  40.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 43.3N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1200Z 46.2N  21.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z 49.3N  14.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1200Z 49.8N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Kimberlain

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 06-Oct-2015 14:43:31 UTC