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Hurricane FRED Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 311451
TCDAT1

HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

Visible satellite pictures and earlier microwave data indicate
that Fred has a well-defined inner core.  The outer banding that
was noted yesterday is no longer evident, and the hurricane is quite
compact.  A well-defined eye was evident in both a 0904 UTC
SSMIS and 1121 UTC AMSU microwave overpasses. The initial intensity
is raised to 75 kt, which is between the latest objective and
subjective satellite estimates from UW/CIMSS and TAFB, respectively.
Satellite data suggest that the eye of Fred passed just southwest of
Boa Vista Island in the Cape Verde Islands, however the northeastern
eyewall likely moved over a portion of that island just before 1200
UTC this morning.

The sea surface temperatures along the path of Fred are beginning
to decrease, however, the vertical shear is expected to remain quite
low for another 12 hours or so.  Little change in strength is
expected today.  By Tuesday, Fred will be over SSTS of around 26C
and southwesterly shear is forecast to increase.  This should cause
gradual weakening, and a further increase in shear and a drier, more
stable air mass should cause a faster rate of decay after 36 hours.
The tropical cyclone is now forecast to become a tropical depression
in about 4 days, and degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

Fred continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. The hurricane
should maintain a northwestward heading during the next 12 to 24
hours. During this time, the center of Fred is expected to pass over
or very close to the northwestern Cape Verde Islands of Sao Nicolou,
Santa Luzuia, Sao Vicente, and Sao Antao. On Tuesday, a west-
northwestward turn is predicted as a mid-level ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone.  Fred should then maintain a
west-northwestward heading during the remainder of the forecast
period.  The NHC track remains on the south side of the guidance
envelope, in best agreement with a consensus of the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

According to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which
begins in 1851, Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape
Verde Islands since 1892.  We caution, however, that the database is
less reliable prior to the satellite era (mid 1960s onward).

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 16.4N  23.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 17.3N  25.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 18.6N  26.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 19.6N  28.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 20.3N  30.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 21.4N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 22.5N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 24.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2015 14:52:00 UTC