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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 031434
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015

As anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed
most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone
consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like
yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north
of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level
winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very
hostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast
calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By
the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models
are showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous
warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity
for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt.
In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the
northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve
toward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track
models provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the
consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 21.5N  34.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 21.9N  35.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 22.3N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 25.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 27.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z 30.5N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 14:34:29 UTC