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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 032033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Despite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep
convection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the
vigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of
scatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt
based on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult
for Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is
forecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of
days and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in
about 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not
completely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined
with the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic,
could provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The
1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment
for Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the
regeneration will not materialize.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
continues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward
the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve
toward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC
forecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and
the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 22.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 22.4N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 22.7N  38.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 23.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 31.0N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 20:33:37 UTC