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Hurricane Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities


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ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  

HURRICANE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102017               
0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 120W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   5( 9)   4(13)   1(14)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)

10N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

15N 125W       34  1  18(19)  42(61)   9(70)  19(89)   X(89)   X(89)
15N 125W       50  X   2( 2)  15(17)  10(27)  19(46)   2(48)   X(48)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   X(16)

20N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)  12(15)   8(23)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
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