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Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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000
FOPZ15 KNHC 080246
PWSEP5

HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2014                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 145W       34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 145W       34  1  44(45)  27(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
20N 145W       50  X   4( 4)  19(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
20N 145W       64  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   2(19)   X(19)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   9(26)   1(27)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
KAHULUI        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   9(22)   1(23)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
LANAI CITY     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  13(24)   1(25)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
KAUNAKAKAI     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   1(24)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
HONOLULU       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   5(26)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
LIHUE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   6(22)
NIIHAU         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
NIIHAU         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


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Page last modified: Friday, 08-Aug-2014 02:46:56 UTC