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Tropical Storm MADELINE Wind Speed Probabilities


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ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 140W       34 23  11(34)   2(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
15N 140W       50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 140W       34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)

15N 145W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  29(35)  41(76)   2(78)   X(78)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  33(40)   1(41)   X(41)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   X(17)   X(17)

25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  29(43)   3(46)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  28(34)   6(40)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  12(22)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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