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Tropical Storm CELIA Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ14 KNHC 150839
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016               
0900 UTC FRI JUL 15 2016                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

25N 145W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  10(18)   X(18)   X(18)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)

NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS