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Hurricane LESTER Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ13 KNHC 280249
PWSEP3

HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016               
0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 125W       34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 125W       34  1  30(31)   4(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
20N 125W       50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)

20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)  20(21)  33(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   2(13)   1(14)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  49(54)   4(58)   X(58)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   3(23)   X(23)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   3(16)
15N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  35(42)   5(47)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   3(17)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  23(31)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE