| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Depression OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Archive  


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 040230
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2009                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      

VALID TIME   12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED      33      53      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 63      40      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   4       7      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   20KT    20KT    NA      NA      NA      NA      NA  


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    




Graphical version of this page
 

Get Storm Info
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Advisory Archive - Mobile Products - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds - About NHC Products

Tropical Analysis and Forecasting
Atlantic Products - E Pac Products - About TAFB Products

Learn About Hurricanes
Hurricane Awareness - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division - Hurricane Hunters - The Saffir-Simpson-Hurricane Scale - Forecasting Models - Inland Wind Model - Eyewall Wind-Profiles - TPC Glossary - TPC Acronyms - Storm Names Breakpoints

Hurricane History
NHC/TPC Archives - Forecast Verification - Climatology - 1492-1996 (Atlantic) - 1900-2000 (USA) - Most Expensive - Most Intense - US Strikes by Decade - US Strikes by State

About Us
About the TPC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - TPC Personnel - NOAA Locator - Visitor Information - NHC Library - WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: [an error occurred while processing this directive]