| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 311437
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)

L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)   3(27)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  10(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Oct-2014 14:37:52 UTC