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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities


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ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   5(20)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)   9(41)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)  28(57)   3(60)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)   2(31)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   2(18)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  60(73)  11(84)   1(85)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  42(44)  17(61)   X(61)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  17(39)   X(39)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   1(20)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  26(32)  36(68)   4(72)   X(72)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  30(36)   3(39)   X(39)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   2(20)   X(20)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  30(47)  14(61)   1(62)   1(63)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   8(22)   1(23)   X(23)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PONCE PR       34  3  87(90)   8(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
PONCE PR       50  1  54(55)  27(82)   1(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
PONCE PR       64  X  17(17)  38(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)

AGUADILLA PR   34  2  61(63)  33(96)   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X  19(19)  61(80)   6(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   3( 3)  51(54)   9(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)

SAN JUAN PR    34  5  92(97)   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50  2  83(85)  12(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
SAN JUAN PR    64  X  42(42)  38(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)

VIEQUES PR     34 40  60(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50  5  91(96)   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
VIEQUES PR     64  X  72(72)   6(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)

SAINT THOMAS   34 61  38(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50  9  81(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
SAINT THOMAS   64  1  34(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

SAINT CROIX    34 93   7(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50 66  33(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    64  5  78(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)

SAINT MAARTEN  34 83   2(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
SAINT MAARTEN  50 18   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 87   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)

BARBUDA        34 59   1(60)   X(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)

ANTIGUA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GUADELOUPE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

AVES           34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
AVES           50 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
AVES           64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DOMINICA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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