| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

U.S. Watch/Warning   Local Products  


000
FONT15 KNHC 190852
PWSAT5

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)  13(42)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)  32(56)   6(62)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   5(33)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   3(19)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  63(69)  15(84)   2(86)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)  23(60)   1(61)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  21(40)   1(41)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   1(22)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   1(16)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  49(65)   6(71)   X(71)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  32(34)   5(39)   1(40)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   4(23)   X(23)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  26(32)  24(56)   3(59)   X(59)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PONCE PR       34  2  37(39)  53(92)   3(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)
PONCE PR       50  X   5( 5)  58(63)   8(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
PONCE PR       64  X   1( 1)  36(37)  11(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)

AGUADILLA PR   34  1  11(12)  71(83)  12(95)   X(95)   1(96)   X(96)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   1( 1)  44(45)  28(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)  24(24)  28(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)

SAN JUAN PR    34  2  63(65)  33(98)   1(99)   X(99)   1(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X  12(12)  75(87)   5(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
SAN JUAN PR    64  X   2( 2)  64(66)   9(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)

VIEQUES PR     34  3  91(94)   6(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50  1  53(54)  40(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
VIEQUES PR     64  X  20(20)  59(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)

SAINT THOMAS   34  7  90(97)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50  1  62(63)  22(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X  24(24)  29(53)   X(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)

SAINT CROIX    34 37  63(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50  2  90(92)   5(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
SAINT CROIX    64  X  70(70)  13(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)

SAINT MAARTEN  34 80  12(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  5  11(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 47   2(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BARBUDA        34 71   1(72)   X(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)

ANTIGUA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ANTIGUA        50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GUADELOUPE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GUADELOUPE     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

AVES           34 92   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
AVES           50 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
AVES           64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DOMINICA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DOMINICA       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MARTINIQUE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Sep-2017 08:53:16 UTC