| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
FONT15 KNHC 230235
PWSAT5

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   6(17)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   7(19)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  15(25)   6(31)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   5(20)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   5(25)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   4(23)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   3(16)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAN SALVADOR   34  4   4( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

MAYAGUANA      34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GRAND TURK     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Sep-2017 02:36:50 UTC