| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

U.S. Watch/Warning   Local Products   UPDATE  

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   6(21)   1(22)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  31(35)  13(48)   1(49)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   X(20)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  23(29)  34(63)   3(66)   X(66)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  25(30)   2(32)   X(32)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)

GRAND TURK     34  1   5( 6)  38(44)  41(85)   9(94)   X(94)   X(94)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)  12(12)  45(57)  15(72)   1(73)   X(73)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  31(33)  20(53)   X(53)   X(53)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)

CAPE BEATA     34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)

PUERTO PLATA   34  2  15(17)  45(62)  11(73)   3(76)   1(77)   X(77)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   3( 3)  18(21)  12(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  3  36(39)  14(53)   3(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  1   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PONCE PR       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       50 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       64 69   2(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)

AGUADILLA PR   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
AGUADILLA PR   50 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
AGUADILLA PR   64 57  22(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)

SAN JUAN PR    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

VIEQUES PR     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SAINT THOMAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   64 45   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)

SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AVES           34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Sep-2017 08:57:49 UTC