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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   5( 5)  11(16)  13(29)   6(35)   1(36)   X(36)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MAYAGUANA      34  3  26(29)  23(52)   4(56)   1(57)   1(58)   X(58)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND TURK     34 81  18(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     50 22  56(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
GRAND TURK     64  3  38(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

LES CAYES      34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  3   2( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CAPE BEATA     34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PUERTO PLATA   34 78   1(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
PUERTO PLATA   50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO PLATA   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  6   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

PONCE PR       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AGUADILLA PR   34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAN JUAN PR    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Sep-2017 14:49:09 UTC