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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   2(14)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)   3(21)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  10(24)   3(27)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   2(17)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   9(26)   3(29)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)   2(18)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  18(24)   8(32)   1(33)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  20(26)   8(34)   2(36)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  22(29)   9(38)   1(39)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)  23(35)  10(45)   X(45)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   1(14)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   1(24)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  18(31)  26(57)  10(67)   1(68)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   8(24)   X(24)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   X(15)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)  21(40)   7(47)   1(48)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   4( 4)   8(12)  15(27)  22(49)   7(56)   1(57)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   1(14)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   3( 3)   8(11)  12(23)  22(45)   7(52)   1(53)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)  17(32)   5(37)   1(38)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)  14(27)   4(31)   1(32)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)  12(26)   4(30)   X(30)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   8(17)   3(20)   1(21)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   8(14)   3(17)   X(17)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Sep-2017 14:43:08 UTC