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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)

NORFOLK NAS    34  1   5( 6)   7(13)   5(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)

NORFOLK VA     34  1   6( 7)   6(13)   7(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  2   5( 7)   7(14)   8(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  3   6( 9)   9(18)   7(25)   4(29)   X(29)   X(29)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ROCKY MT NC    34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  7  19(26)  15(41)   8(49)   3(52)   X(52)   X(52)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CHERRY PT NC   34  4   8(12)   7(19)   4(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)

NEW RIVER NC   34  5  13(18)  10(28)   4(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  5  10(15)   8(23)   5(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)

SURF CITY NC   34  4   5( 9)   5(14)   3(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)

WILMINGTON NC  34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

LITTLE RIVER   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Sep-2017 20:39:44 UTC